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Macroeconomic updates - all news

13.09.2019

Tourism in Iceland: Modest angle of attack

Arion Research has published its annual report on the status and prospects of the tourism industry in Iceland. The main findings are:
  • The number of tourists to Iceland has declined by roughly 13% YoY in 2019. A change in Icelandair´s passenger mix has mitigated the effect of WOW air bankruptcy on the number of tourists. YTD number of passengers travelling with Icelandair to Iceland rose by 30% YoY while total number of passengers only rose by 11%.
  • We expect tourism in Iceland to recover gradually following WOW air´s bankruptcy. Our base case assumes 2% growth in number of tourists in 2020. Grounding of Boeing MAX 8 aircrafts hinders Icelandair´s growth ambitions in 2018 and 2019. Stronger growth in number of tourists mostly rests on whether a new airline or airlines begin operations.
  • On average each tourist visiting Iceland in 2019 has stayed greater number of nights and spent more money, whether in ISK or in their own currency. Therefore, contraction in the tourist sector is likely to be less severe than we were concerned with at the beginning of the year. We highlight three contributing factors; progress has been made in attracting more affluent tourists, changes in Icelandair´s passenger mix and more reliable data on number of actual overnight visitors.
  • The demise of WOW air and subsequent contraction in number of tourists has caused number of tourist related jobs to contract. Despite that net migration to Iceland could exceed 4,000 people in 2019. Fewer jobs coupled with a growing work force increases competition in the labor market and contributes to a growth in unemployment. We expect that at the end of 2019 tourism related jobs will be around 2,000 fewer than at the end of 2018 and that unemployment rate will climb to around 4% by the end of the year.

Tourism in Iceland 2019.pdf


Sources: Icelandic Tourist Board, Arion Research

Back
  • 10.11.2020

    Economic Outlook 2020-2023: Every storm runs out of rain

  • 17.12.2019

    Economic Outlook: Mild winter, cold spring

  • 13.09.2019

    Tourism in Iceland: Modest angle of attack

  • 03.09.2019

    Oops, they did it again: Statice revises GDP figures

  • 30.08.2019

    Wow, 1.4% GDP growth in Q2 without WOW

  • 28.08.2019

    You shall not pass any further? 25 bps rate cut and silence of the doves

  • 13.08.2019

    Economic Outlook: Bumpy, but passable

  • 02.07.2019

    Icelandic tourism fights back

  • 26.06.2019

    Governor‘s farewell: 25 bps rate cut

  • 03.06.2019

    Net IIP takes center stage in Q1

  • 31.05.2019

    The way it was: 1.7% GDP growth in Q1

  • 27.05.2019

    BoT: Sunshine and showers

  • 22.05.2019

    Lower rates and dovish tone

  • 10.05.2019

    Cloudy with a chance of hail according to Statistics Iceland

  • 05.04.2019

    Economic Outlook: Winter is here

  • 21.03.2019

    Few options but to keep rates unchanged

  • 08.03.2019

    The Special Reserve Requirement lowered to 0%

  • 04.03.2019

    A surprising CA surplus in Q4

  • 01.03.2019

    Still waiting for a soft landing: 4.9% GDP growth in 2018

  • 25.02.2019

    Deficit is coming

  • 06.02.2019

    The doves unsurprisingly win the hawks – unchanged interest rates

  • 24.01.2019

    The Icelandic Housing Market: Finally levelling off

  • 03.01.2019

    The Beat Goes On: 2018 in Review

  • 12.12.2018

    Unchanged interest rates – the króna takes center stage

  • 07.12.2018

    GDP growth in Q3: Well hello private consumption!

  • 04.12.2018

    (Almost) a record surplus

  • 07.11.2018

    Hawkish tone decorated with dove feathers

  • 31.10.2018

    Economic Outlook: Soft(ish) landing

  • 02.10.2018

    Tourism in Iceland: Soft landing or a belly flop?

  • 07.09.2018

    Staggering growth in the second quarter

  • 04.09.2018

    The surplus shrinks while the external position soars

  • 31.08.2018

    Balance of trade Q2: The surplus decreases, again

  • 29.08.2018

    Unchanged interest rates: MPC flexes muscles

  • 02.08.2018

    Economic Outlook: Summer is Fading

  • 03.07.2018

    Never Too Old to Learn - Soft Landing Ahead

  • 11.06.2018

    Strong GDP growth in Q1 not enough to change rates

  • 05.06.2018

    Current account in Q1: Small, smaller, smallest

  • 01.06.2018

    Balance of trade in Q1: The incredible shrinking surplus

  • 18.05.2018

    Similar statements, same interest rates

  • 17.05.2018

    This is why we expect the króna to depreciate

  • 11.05.2018

    Winter rates will not let it go

  • 23.04.2018

    Economic Outlook: Caution, fragile!

  • 14.03.2018

    Unchanged interest rates, unchanged reserve requirement

  • 09.03.2018

    3.6% GDP growth in 2017: No cause to change rates

  • 06.03.2018

    Honey, I shrunk the current account surplus

  • 02.03.2018

    Trade in services: False alarm?

  • 07.02.2018

    Unchanged interest rates – No hawks in sight

  • 05.02.2018

    The Icelandic Housing Market: On the mend

  • 19.01.2018

    2017 Q4: Icelanders meet expectations, tourists do not

  • 15.11.2017

    Hurdle on the path to lower interest rates

  • 14.11.2017

    Economic Outlook: Too good to be true?

  • 04.10.2017

    Unexpected interest rate cut – Iceland low interest rate country?

  • 18.09.2017

    Tourism in Iceland: Here to stay?

  • 11.09.2017

    Private consumption joined the party – 3.4% GDP growth in Q2

  • 05.09.2017

    Strong króna reduces the current account surplus

  • 23.08.2017

    Interest rates unchanged – rate cuts put on hold

  • 10.08.2017

    Economic Outlook: Soft landing ahead?

  • 18.07.2017

    Payment card turnover increases by 12.2% in June

  • 26.06.2017

    External trade in a tiny economy

  • 15.06.2017

    The Central Bank's summer gift: Interest rate cut

  • 08.06.2017

    Private consumption and external trade fuel 5% economic growth

  • 30.05.2017

    Five reasons why the Icelandic króna is too strong

  • 17.05.2017

    Rising sun brings rate cuts

  • 25.04.2017

    Summary on the Icelandic stock market, dividends and interest in the market

  • 31.03.2017

    Economic Outlook 2017-2019

  • 15.03.2017

    Unchanged interest rates – will spring bring rate cuts?

  • 13.03.2017

    Further steps taken towards capital account liberalization

  • 09.03.2017

    GDP growth 11.3% in fourth quarter of 2016

  • 08.03.2017

    Are there grounds for further strengthening of the ISK?

  • 03.03.2017

    Current account surplus 8% of GDP in 2016

  • 28.02.2017

    Inflation: Continued tug of war between exchange rate and housing prices

  • 08.02.2017

    Unchanged interest rates and inflation near target rate

  • 07.02.2017

    The Icelandic Housing Market: Still in search of equilibrium

  • 01.02.2017

    The Króna depreciates in the first month of the year

  • 01.02.2017

    Strong labor market in December and 2016

  • 12.01.2017

    New majority government formed

  • 29.12.2016

    Third quarter GDP growth in double digits

  • 29.12.2016

    Tourists reduce spending amidst appreciating króna

  • 29.12.2016

    Housing prices keep rising

  • 29.12.2016

    Allowances to foreign investment of pension funds increased

  • 09.11.2016

    The times they are a changin’ – parliamentary elections 2016

  • 01.11.2016

    Arion Research Economic Outlook 2016-2019

  • 20.09.2016

    Tourism in Iceland: Dreamland or Devil’s Island?

 

Icelandic Economic Update 2016

  • Icelandic Economic Update December 2016

  • Icelandic Economic Update November 2016

  • Icelandic Economic Update October 2016

  • Icelandic Economic Update September 2016

  • Icelandic Economic Update August 2016

  • Icelandic Economic Update July 2016

  • Icelandic Economic Update June 2016

  • Icelandic Economic Update May 2016

  • Icelandic Economic Update April 2016

  • Icelandic Economic Update February 2016

  • Icelandic Economic Update January 2016

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